CMC
The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says cooling temperatures in the equatorial Pacific may result in a progressive transition to La Niña. At the same time, near record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean is set to continue.
“Therefore, an intense peak and tail end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Caribbean Wet Season and the Caribbean Heat Season, implying frequent and intense episodes of oppressive humid heat; and tropical cyclones and severe weather, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts,” CariCOF said in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication.
In its outlook for the period September to December, CariCOF said though unpredictable conditions in the atmosphere can, at times, present barriers to extreme activity of these three types of seasons, they are unlikely to persist throughout the period.
It said during the period May to July this year, a record-warm Tropical North Atlantic had continued to fuel record-breaking temperatures, as well as the usual or even larger than the normal rainfall totals during the transition into the Caribbean wet season, including record rainfall in inland Guyana and Suriname. Nevertheless, long-term drought remains in place in northern Guyana and westernmost Jamaica.
CariCOF said that as of August 1, this year, severe or worse short-term drought has developed in western Jamaica and southwest Trinidad with long-term drought in southwest Belize, French Guiana, northern Guyana, western Jamaica and eastern Suriname.
Long-term drought at the end of November is evolving in French Guiana, and Trinidad, and might develop or continue in western and southeastern Belize, northern Guyana and Tobago.