Source: teleSUR
The water temperature is expected to rise to record levels this year, so an increase in cyclone activity can be expected. The region shows a great geographical vulnerability that is reinforced by economic conditions. It is simply not conditioned to meet the challenges of climate change, nor do its development models contemplate it.
El Niño, with its “shear” effect, and the very high thermal anomalies in the Atlantic are facing each other this year. While the former slows down the appearance of storms in the corridor from Cape Verde to the Caribbean, the latter is “fuel” for them. It was not known which of the two would prevail, but the primacy of high temperatures is evident: the U.S. National Hurricane Center is monitoring four Atlantic low pressures and another depression has formed.
The models were predicting that tropical storm activity would skyrocket this week. This is something that happens in August, so it was not a risky prediction. On the other hand, it was difficult to foresee the interaction of the two phenomena. Under normal conditions, if there were not such high temperatures in the Atlantic, we would expect a season with very little activity. However, a very active season is expected.
The strong “shear” (the differences in speed between different points and altitudes of the atmosphere) causes fewer structures to be generated that are likely to become hurricanes. Without atmospheric catalysts, there are no tropical storms and, consequently, the seasons tend to be less active.
The problem is that the North Atlantic’s high temperatures provide a lot of energy. In other words, although there are fewer storms in absolute Numbers, energy availability returns to those that are more viable and intense.
Consequently, as the peak of hurricane activity approaches in early September, the corridor from Cape Verde to the Gulf of Mexico has been filled with potential hurricanes. Five are currently being monitored in the Atlantic. Franklin, one of them, made landfall on Hispaniola (shared between Haiti and the Dominican Republic) near Barahona this morning and is expected to cause flooding. Emily, on the other hand, does not look like it will affect the mainland. There is also a dry air mass in the Tropical Atlantic that is expected to slow the development of potential storms.
Overall, the water temperature is expected to rise to record levels this year, so an increase in cyclone activity can be expected. The region shows a great geographical vulnerability that is reinforced by economic conditions. It is simply not conditioned to meet the challenges of climate change, nor do its development models contemplate it.