Possible Flooding Rainfall for Parts of the Northern Caribbean

Likely cloud cover pattern for 2 pm Wednesday, 7 February 2024, by the ECMWF model

Source: By Dale C. S. Destin –

The northeast Caribbean is bracing for potentially record-breaking rainfall this week with forecasts suggesting accumulations exceeding 100 mm (4.0 in) within 24 hours. Torrential rainfall and thunderstorms are likely, raising concerns about flash flooding.

A cold front is sweeping across the northern Caribbean. The system is moving from west to east from Cuba and the Bahamas and is likely to reach us in the northeast Caribbean on Wednesday and continue through Thursday. The front will likely bring very unsettled weather that could significantly disrupt normal activities.

While cold fronts are not uncommon in the region, the combination of torrential rainfall and thunderstorms during February is unusual. The last occurrence of thundershowers, recorded by the Met Office, in February, was recorded in 2017, with the one prior dating back to 1991.

Rainfall totals could surpass the average for February within just 24 to 48 hours, potentially shattering previous records. The 24-hour rainfall record of 39 mm (1.54 in) set at V. C. Bird International Airport in 1982 is at risk of being surpassed. Moreover, the accumulated rainfall this week could propel February 2024 to become the wettest on record, surpassing the 130 mm (5.15 in) mark set in Antigua back in 1982.

With such extraordinary weather patterns projected, residents and authorities are urged to stay vigilant and prepare for possible flooding and other weather-related disruptions.

 

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