268Weather : Final Updated 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast – August 18, 2024

Source: Dale Destin
We have entered the heart of the hurricane season, August to October. Thus far, based on the accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE), the season has been three times more active than usual. It could be one of the most active seasons on record. My updated forecast is out, and we continue to call for an active or above-normal season with it being more likely than not a well above-normal or a super hyperactive one. The updated prediction is for 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes and an ACE of 221.

Comparing the five forecasts issued since April, there is a notable decrease in the number of named storms from 27 to 20 or 26%; however, the ACE has only dropped from 233 to 221 or 5%. The drop is likely due to the forecast of a weak La Niña. Notwithstanding, the confidence of an above-normal season has remained very high, ranging from 87 to 91 per cent.

The peak day of the hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. Locally, Antigua has two peak days, August 21 and September 3, with most activity between mid-August and late September.
The 268Weather forecast is intended to provide the best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the season; it is not an exact measure; it’s a guide, not gospel.

This is the last forecast for the season. The first forecast for the 2025 season will be issued around 15 April 2025.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. “August look out you must” be prepared! It only takes one to ruin your year and or life.